In recent weeks, the U.S. economy has taken a decisive turn toward protectionism, with the Trump administration imposing a sweeping set of new tariffs. The average U.S. tariff rate has jumped from a modest 2.5% to a staggering 22.5%—levels not seen since the early 20th century. While these measures may appeal politically as attempts to “protect American jobs,” the economic implications are deeply concerning. The simple truth is this: tariffs are inflationary, and inflation of a certain magnitude can trigger a recession.